Exploring Information Markets on Polygon

People are betting on the future on Polymarket - an information market on Polygon.


Hey DEFI TIMES community,

The future is multi-chain - no doubt. 

We talked about Polygon many times in the past.

The Polygon ecosystem is one of the fastest-growing ones in DeFi right now - for good reasons! It's fast, cheap, and it captures Ethereum's network effect.

That's why you need to learn about it if you want to stay up to date in DeFi.

So today, we explore one of the most exciting apps on Polygon: Polymarket. Polymarket is a decentralized information market that allows you to speculate on the outcome of real-world events.

For example, you can speculate on elections, football matches, and other current events while earning cryptocurrency if your bets are correct.

Any information market has a question that can be answered by "yes" or "no."

On Polymarket, participants buy shares with USDC. These shares are priced between $0.01 and $1.00. In general, prices reflect the probability of the event outcome. That means, if a information market is priced at $0.02, the market assesses the likelihood to be very low.

So, let's explore some of the most interesting bets on Polygon!


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Exploring Information Markets on Polygon

Let's start by answering what an information market is: A information market consists of several people speculating on the outcome of various events. These events include:

  • exchange averages

  • election results

  • commodity prices

  • quarterly sales results

  • Or any real-world event you can bet on

The prices in an information market reflect the probability that a particular event will occur. Information markets allow us to bet directly on a piece of information that has some value to us. Election outcomes are the perfect example. The result of the US election has an extraordinary impact on the world. That's why people pay close attention to it and are willing to speculate on the outcome they think is the most likely.

People, who thought Donald Trump had the most significant chances of winning the US election in 2020, could have placed their bets in information markets.

Information markets allow us to make money based on our belief systems.

Do you believe that China will leave the US behind by 2030? Great - Place your bets on it!

Information markets allow you to put your money where your mouth is.

Over time, information markets have proven to be reasonably reliable prediction tools. With information markets, we have an effective tool to determine the probability of any event's outcome.

The more people bet on a particular event, the more accurate the probability can be displayed. That's why information markets are particularly interesting. Even for people who are not willing to risk their money, information markets provide valuable information for important real-world events.

Now, let's head over to Polymarket.

Why should you place your bets on Polygon?

Polymarket is an information market on Polygon. But why should you place your bets on Polygon?

It's the same reason why fewer people are willing to use Ethereum anymore: High gas fees. Ethereum's scalability issues lead to more and more people switching to cheaper alternatives such as layer-two solutions or sidechains.

Polygon is way cheaper and faster than Ethereum. Polygon allows for more transactions per second, ultimately increasing the number of users.

On Polymarket, more users can bet on the outcome of certain events. As explained above, the more people bet on information markets, the more accurate the predictions are.

That's why Polymarket allows us to predict real-world events accurately.

Now, let's explore some of these events and dive deeper into the Polymarket ecosystem.

Will EIP-1559 be implemented by July 31, 2021?

Let's start with the most popular bet on Polymarket right now: Users bet on the question, whether EIP-1559 will be implemented by July 31, 2021.

It's a simple question that you can answer with "yes" or "no."

As you can see, the red line displays the probability of EIP-1559 taking longer than July 31 to ship. On the flip side, the blue line displays the probability of EIP-1550 being implemented earlier than the end of July.

Apparently, the majority of market participants don't see EIP-1559 in July. In fact, they assess the probability to be 3%.

On the other hand, the probability of EIP-1559 not shipping in July is currently trading at 97%. Pretty interesting!

Will the US have fewer than 1,000 COVID-19 cases before September 1?

Another interesting information market is whether the US will have fewer than 1,000 Corona cases before September 1.

Most people here think that it's not very likely - according to the information market, the probability of achieving less than 1,000 before September is only 22%.

Conclusion

Information markets are pretty interesting because they let the free market determine probabilities for real-world events.

Whether it's about EIP-1559, Covid cases, or something else, Polymarket lets users bet on literally anything.


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DISCLAIMER: All information presented above is meant for informational purposes only and should not be treated as financial, legal, or tax advice. This article's content solely reflects the opinion of the writer, who is not a financial advisor.

Do your own research before you purchase cryptocurrencies. Any cryptocurrency can go down in value. Holding cryptocurrencies is risky.